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Slowdown in the growth rate of China's construction machinery reason research and analysis

2012-08-15 12:02  PV:1458  Go Back

Likun Long: construction machinery industry and national infrastructure, real estate investment is closely related to and associated with the national policy. In fact, the development of the construction machinery industry mainly to see the country continue to invest, rather than new stimulus, because the countries in the "12th Five-Year Plan is very detailed planning of all aspects of rail transportation, water conservancy projects, new energy this big role in boosting the construction machinery. So the next step by step in accordance with the "12th Five-Year Plan, the development of the construction machinery industry in fact is very clear. However, the current problem is the last year the state adopted a series of tightening policy in order to curb inflation, resulting in a lot of projects because of funding problems are "stuck", so the construction machinery industry is relatively recession.

We expect to the third quarter of this year, probably in August or September, demand there will be some recovery. Our monitoring data show that foreign brands excavator working hours for five consecutive months qoq positive growth, although the year-on-year negative growth, but is expected to occur in August or September marked improvement.

If compared to the first half of this year and the second half of last year, the industry growth rate is on the rise. But if compared to the data in the past few years, the growth rate is definitely slowing down. Investment growth in China is slowing, the slowdown in the growth of various industries, this macro backdrop, only with the direction of government investment (such as affordable housing, irrigation and water conservancy projects, etc.) sub-sectors is expected to maintain standards of rapid development. Construction machinery industry, low down payment, zero down payment, disguised price cuts irrational promotional tools, accounts receivable

Likun Long: from this year's data, the cash flow situation is tense in the first quarter of this year is the most stressful time, and has been a slight improvement in the second quarter. Enterprises have a great impact, our monitoring data from the fourth quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, more than one hundred agents brands out of the market, this accelerating industry consolidation, some enterprises will gradually be eliminated, However, the current phase-out is not a listed company, unlisted domestic brand.

But some projects have to restart some of the project funds in place, the market as a whole began to appear active signs. If reported data comparing the second half of last year, capital flow situation may be much worse, but in the second half of this year will be much better than the first half.

Short-term valuation of fixed interim into a consolidation
Likun Long: construction machinery industry segments excavator in the short term is certainly valuation restoration process, along with improving the cash flow of the industrial chain and demand recovery. Medium-term, then, or will enter the adjustment this time is expected there will be more consolidation in the industry, more mergers and acquisitions industry after the completion of the consolidation in the industry, the long-term prospects are very good.

Reasons first, from the industry point of view, when industry consolidation in place, corporate profits have been restored, and the industry chain will optimize; From a macroeconomic construction machinery industry in the next five years from the "reconstruction light support" ( great importance to the construction of the light curing) into the emphasis on conservation, which is absolutely capable of supporting the development of the space industry for the next 20 years.


 


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